Category: Economics

March 2025 Wrap-Up

Another Month Passes By

March 2025 contained a variety of weather from balmy to frigid. Moisture was on the light side, but the last few days look promising for April showers. Travel, gardening and quilting took up quite a bit of time. Books were read and reviewed. All in all, it was a productive month.

On the economic front, tariffs are eminent, and the outcome is uncertain. Naturally this translates into an unsettled market. Young stock market participants need not panic but I am sure retirees and fixed income individuals are as jittery as the stock exchanges. I have added a New Market Basket to track how the coming tariffs will impact prices. The Misery Index fell slightly to 6.9%. This is opposite of what I expect going forward.

Politics in the United States continues to be acrimonious. Our united front after 9/11 is all but gone. There is plenty of blame to go around and none of it is helpful. Personally, I only know of a few people planning to locate outside of the country. But others may be entertaining the thought of moving abroad. The parallels to the 1930s and 1940s have the elderly population shaking their heads.

In the Library-March 2025

While only two books were reviewed, several more were read. Some will be reviewed in the coming weeks. Deciding what to review is easy for the most part. I try not to have too many of the same author. I also refuse to review those I did not enjoy and, in some cases, don’t even finish. Furthermore, I often read for fun. Those books tend not to get reviewed. However, the next review will be an exception. Check back in a few days.

Starting Seeds

Seedlings planted in trays March 2025March is a good time to start seeds. So, the cool-weather crops were started in early March 2025 while the tomatoes were planted toward the end of the month. Lettuce, kale, spinach and Swiss chard make up most of the plants. Six different tomato varieties were planted. The Genuine Heirloom Marriage Hybrid tomatoes took longer to emerge, and the germination rate was about half. But the seeds were from 2023. Viability decreases over time.

Additionally, repairs were made to the raised rows in the Big Garden. Early March brought tropical storm and even Cat. One winds to the Great Plains. Dust storms still exist in this part of the country in the early spring. Fortunately, by the end of the month the wheat stands turned green and helped mitigate the dirt-filled air. Hopefully, April will bring rain.

March 2025 Quilts

Work continues on the king sized bargello quilt. Once pieced, the quilting can begin, and piecing of the baby quilts can start. Quilts are a labor of love as well as an expression of art. I also find quilting a stress reliever.

I hope March 2025  was productive for you.

New Market Basket

Stagflation or Just Inflation?

It is time to look at a new market basket. The inflation check challenge focused primarily on food with a few other items thrown in. The United States government excludes food and energy costs from their price index because these items are so volatile. But food and other everyday items are key in the minds of consumers. If food costs go up, more of the household budget flows to this essential. Other items take a back seat.

However, tariff driven price increases will impact a variety of items. Food does come into play. And so, we will keep food goods in the market basket. But other goods come to mind.

One of the problems in tracking goods is that many items manufactured in the United States use parts from overseas. Thus, the goods will be impacted by a trade war. We will look at some goods made in the United States primarily with imported parts.

Finally, we will include non-edible direct imports. For example, I use a Samsung laptop for my work. Other items would be tougher to track due to multiple variables. Think of gemstones or furniture or even light fixtures. For a market basket to work you need comparisons that are exact.

Original Market Basket

When I first looked at inflation, supply chain shocks due to disruption from Covid was the culprit. The items were mostly food based with a few outliers. I revisited this market basket recently and the prices jumped quite a bit in the intervening years. I have included a table for those of you who participated in the Inflation Check Challenge.

 
Item Amount January 2021
Price
Regular/Sale
April 2021
Price
Regular/Sale
July 2021
Price
Regular/Sale
October 2021
Price
Regular/Sale
January 2022
Price
Regular/Sale
March 2025
Price
Regular Sale
Planet Oat Extra Creamy Original Oat Milk 52 OZ. $3.49 $3.99 $3.99/$2.99 $3.99 $3.99/$3.79 $4.99/$3.49
Small bag Signature Select Sugar 4 LBS. $2.99 $2.99/$1.99 $2.99 $2.99/$2.49 $3.29 $5.49
Signature Select Cream Style Corn 14.75 OZ. $0.69 $0.79 $0.79 $0.79/$0.65 $0.89 $1.99/$1.50
Fleischmanns Active Dry Yeast 4 OZ. $6.99 $6.99 $7.19 $7.49 $7.49 $6.99
Bananas 1 LB. $0.59 $0.55 $0.59 $0.59 $0.69 $0.65
Kraft Real Mayo 30 OZ. $4.99/$3.79 $4.99/$3.99 $4.99/$3.79 $5.29/$3.99 $5.29/$3.99 $5.99
Meow Mix 6.3 LBS. $7.78 $7.78 $7.78 $8.22 $8.22 $13.99
Morton Salt 26 OZ. $1.19/$0.94 $1.19/$0.99 $1.19/$0.99 $1.29/$0.99 $1.29/$0.99 $2.99
Crest Pro Health Toothpaste 4.6 OZ. $5.99/$4.99 $5.49/$3.99 $3.99/$3.49 $3.99/$2.99 $3.99/$1.99 $3.99
Align Probiotics 28 Count $26.58 $26.58 $26.58 $26.58 $26.58 $32.99
Tide Botanical Rain Detergent 92 OZ. $11.97 $11.97 $11.97 $11.97/$11.39 $11.97 $15.99

Now 84 0z.

Kerr Regular Mouth Canning Lids 12 Count $3.18 $2.88 $2.88 $3.38 $2.28 $4.99 @ Safeway
$8.99 @ Walmart
3M Ad. Allergy Furnace Filter 1 Count $15.88 $15.88 $15.88 $16.38 $17.47 $20.50
Dunkin Donut Boston Cream 1 Count $0.99 $1.09 $1.17 $1.09 $1.17 $1.79
Regular Unleaded Gasoline 1 Gallon $2.36 $2.79 $2.79 $2.79 $3.05 $2.89

New Market Basket

I am keeping quite a few items from the old market basket while adding a few new ones.

Among the additions are eggs, whole milk, Samsung laptop, Aluminum Foil, Hamilton Beach 4-slice Toaster and a G.E. Microwave. It will be interesting to see what if any impact occurs. Between the New Market Basket and the Misery Index we will get a feel for which direction the economy is headed.

 
Product Price Reg./Sale
1Gal Whole Milk $3.69
1 LB. Bananas $0.65
1 Can Cream Style Corn $1.99/$1.50
Dozen Eggs $6.49
1 Dunkin’ Donut $1.79
1 Gal. Reg. Unl. Gas $2.89
Dozen Reg. Mouth Kerr Lids $4.99
Scott’s Step Fertilizer $104.00
Hamilton Beach 4 slice Toaster $48.95
Samsung Galaxy Chromebook $624.99
G.E. 2 Cu Ft 1200 Watt Countertop Microwave @ Lowes $239.00

Is Stagflation on the Horizon?

An Unusual Economic Condition

Stagflation last appeared in the United States of America during the 1970s. The economic condition combines high inflation rates with high unemployment. As most students of economics know, these two functions of the economy usually are inverse to each other. When they act in unison there is strain on the economy, and we call the result stagflation.

Stagflation in the 1970s

Rapidly rising prices combined with wage freezes and layoffs created hardship for most of the 1970s. As a result, Arthur Okun devised a way to measure stagflation. The Misery Index at its’ simplest equation is easy to calculate:

Misery Index= Seasonally Adjusted Rate of Employment + Annual Inflation Rate

Much like the Inflation Rate Challenge of a few years ago, I plan to track the Misery Index throughout 2025. Currently the number reads normal. Thus, the January numbers do not indicate stagflation. However, they are just at the top end of the range. The Seasonally Adjusted Rate of Employment for January 2025 was 4% and the Annual Inflation Rate in January was reported at 3%. So, the numbers bear watching. We start with the Misery Index at 7%. Again, that number reads more like a normally functioning economy, not one experiencing stagflation. But these particular rates are lagging indicators.

Plain Old Inflation

We may just go through another rapid period of inflation similar to that of a few years ago. This time the supply shocks most likely will stem from a combination of tariffs and agricultural woes. Drought and disease are just two factors. Most farmers will agree there is climate change. The argument stems on the cause of the changing weather. But everyone can agree the unknowns of weather patterns have a great impact on farm production.

So, I plan to revisit the Inflation Check Challenge. I will keep some of the items from before. But I am now paying $8.00 for a dozen eggs so those will be watched as well. The first check will be after the February employment and inflation numbers are out so The Misery Index can be tracked, too.

Prediction on Stagflation vs. Inflation

There are a lot of ifs and maybes involved in predicting which way the economy will flow. Current variables include the impact of tariffs, the severity of governmental layoffs as well as private industry slowdowns. Personally, I don’t know of anyone laid off, just of hours cut. Furthermore, how other countries react to the tariffs is unknown.

Countries enjoying unfair competitive advantage can make more concessions than those who believe historical exchanges fall into the Fair-Trade category. Politics comes into play as well as does ongoing military conflict.

Governmental cuts, whether labor or goods, will tend toward a recessionary effect. These cuts are necessary as anyone looking at the Debt Clock can see. (For those who have not checked on the clock in a while, the powers-that-be have added a DOGE component.) The Federal Deficit is near a tipping point which, if reached, will make stagflation look pleasant.

So, while I am certain we will have inflation, I think we will also experience a recession. Thus, the country will undergo stagflation once again.

We can no longer kick the can down the road. In the short-term things will be ugly. But if we do not get the deficit under control, the dollar is in danger of default. And the strength of the U.S.A. will plummet. The country came together after 9/11. Can a unified response to the fiscal mess we are in occur? I hope so, but I do have doubts.

Help Wanted vs. 32-Hour Work Week

Help wanted signs are everywhere so I was surprised to hear of a suggested 32-hour work week yesterday on the radio. Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont is calling for the mandatory reduction in hours along with an increase in the minimum wage to $17.00 an hour. On the surface the idea will sound great to many. But, as always there are costs to a regulated market. Even the labor market.

Free Markets

The concept of free markets is a major contributor to the economic success of the United States as well as most other developed nations. In a free market, prices adjust due to supply and demand. Economic theories are complex and include ideas such as price stickiness and stagflation. But overall, the concepts work. If there is a shortage buyers pay more. When there is a glut suppliers need to cut prices or products languish in warehouses.

Wages represent the price of labor. Help wanted signs are signals that the labor market is not in equilibrium. So, more workers are needed than are willing to work. In a free market situation, wages are increased to the point more individuals are enticed to work. To a certain extent, the process works.

Help Wanted

However, other factors are impacting the labor market. Covid-19, Baby Boomers retirement, child care costs and government policy are all limiting the availability of workers. The combination of factors is having an adverse effect. There are too many reasons to not work whether one is young or old. Perhaps AI (Artificial Intelligence) will take up the slack. But for the present, we have a labor shortage. Hence the Help Wanted signs.

So, businesses respond by cutting hours of operation or even services in general. This results in disgruntled consumers. A vicious cycle begins.

32-Hour Work Week

So as a retired economics instructor I was taken aback by Senator Sanders’ proposal of a 32-Hour work week. In my opinion this is a recipe for disaster. We already have a labor shortage. Fewer hours worked, no matter how productive those hours, means an additional drain on the labor supply.

Certain industries absolutely cannot work with a shortened work week. Just-in-time industries such as fast-food restaurants don’t benefit from a shorter work week. Hamburgers can’t be “saved” for future use. Other industries such as accounting do not benefit from a 32-Hour work week either. Taxes are due when they are due. The same holds true for the legal system. Farmers certainly can’t stop the tractors and combines once the 32-hour mark rolls by.  I could go on and on.

Unfortunately, many states have K-12 systems that are prepping society for a 32-Hour work week. My local school system went to just four days a week about a decade ago. I still think this is a bad idea. Perhaps schools in Vermont where Senator Sanders is from are all on a four-day schedule.

Before retiring to focus on writing I worked in excess of 40 hours a week on a regular basis. My spouse still goes into the office on Saturday mornings. This is in addition to the longer than eight hours during the week. Workaholics? Maybe, but the quality and quantity of work is a positive. Things get done. Service-good service- is provided.

Work Ethic Needed

I am sure Senator Sanders is well intentioned. But I still disagree with his proposal. Our society needs to value the work ethic of its’ labor force. Under a free market, wages will respond to this ideal. Even if it means a period of time dotted with Help Wanted signs. Perhaps it is my Protestant upbringing, but I feel strongly that each individual needs to contribute to society through work.

An umbrella of social services is needed for those who cannot help themselves. BUT, our umbrella is too large. My experience has witnessed severely physically handicapped individuals doing their utmost to contribute somehow and in some way.

Too many individuals not in this category are opting out of work and out of society. Could this unwillingness to provide labor be responsible for our increase in violence? Perhaps. I believe happiness comes from within. If one has not accomplished even a simple task, can one develop this inner emotion? Satisfaction with one’s work plays a key role. But my understanding of psychology is limited. I will stick to economic markets. Help Wanted signs do not equate to a 32-Hour work week.